The February meet-up hosted three presentations by: Vassil Kirov, Astrid Schoeggl, Michela Vecchi.
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The study sheds more light on how automation and employment interact, and what factors strengthen and weaken those relationships, building on previous findings that robots aren’t harming employment in Europe. It shows significant differences among the continent’s economies, and highlights that labour costs play an important role. The paper provides a basis for further research to identify the policies that ensure workers benefit from robotisation as much as possible, the authors said.
Ronald Bachmann and Myrielle Gonschor from the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Germany and Piotr Lewandowski and Karol Madoń from Poland’s Institute for Structural Research (IBS) studied how the increase in robot installation influenced worker flows, i.e. layoffs and new hirings, and therefore employment and unemployment levels in European economies.
“The general message that comes from our research is that adoption of robots in Europe hasn’t led to a rise in unemployment,” Gonschor said. “The number of industrial robots per 1,000 workers quadrupled from 2000 to 2017, and the effects on employment have been seen as mixed. But it turns out that robots aren’t stealing our jobs – they’re changing them.”
The study found that while the general impact of robotisation on employment was positive in the EU, it was stronger in countries with lower labour costs. Robot adoption did not lead to massive job losses, instead reducing the risk of layoffs and increasing chances of job finding, especially in economies where initial labour costs were lower, for instance in Central Eastern European countries such as Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. However, in Western European economies, where labour costs are higher, the effect was neutral – deployment of robots did not result in layoffs, but it did not translate into new jobs either.
“Contrary to the narrative of job losses driven by experience in the US market, in Europe robots are a complement to humans’ work, not a substitute for it,” said Lewandowski. “This is clearly visible in Central and Eastern European economies, where the effects are even stronger as investment in automation created new jobs. That may be because in those countries robots were often installed in greenfield investments, linked to the integration of these economies into global value chains.”
The researchers also found differences in how robotisation affects different groups of workers. Since machines are ideal for predictable and repetitive tasks, many have feared that people who perform such tasks, for instance working on production lines, are most vulnerable to automation. Surprisingly, the research found that they benefit most from automation. In most European countries, except for the richest ones, robot exposure increased the likelihood of job finding among workers in routine occupations. Another surprising finding is that automation does not pose a greater threat to older or younger workers, who are usually seen as the most vulnerable groups of the working population.
“Our findings show robotisation will have different effects on the situation of workers in Germany than in Hungary, for example,” said Bachmann. “So faced with the ongoing increase in automation, EU countries will need different employment policies to support their workforce. Our study is a first step in this direction, and now more research is needed to craft policies at the national level.”
The paper is available here
We have launched the Virtual Expert Café series because we believe a less formal, more casual space for discussion is just as important as big official conferences. During our meetings new ideas are tested, networks expanded and alliances built.
If you are working on labour market issues, join our next meet-up to:
- share information on your current research, project, or results
- announce an event or call for action
- ask questions, seek advice, comment
- listen in and expand your network
Participants who wish to present will be given 3-5 minutes each. If you have a slide, poster or anything else you would like to share, please send it to us in advance at: untangled@zsi.at
Register here: https://survey3.zsi.at/index.php/566899?lang=en
The EU seeks to enhance cooperation with Africa to promote the search for locally adapted solutions to global challenges, which often hit Africa hardest. UNTANGLED research fits with these objectives as it explores the impact of globalisation, technological transformations and demographic change on labour markets in the EU and beyond. Our project includes researchers from Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The 5 July event aimed to introduce UNTANGLED to stakeholders interested in how globalisation, technological transformations and demographic change are impacting labour markets in the European Union. The webinar brought together 30 participants from academia, think tanks and government.
“Our goal is to engage stakeholders from the very beginning of the research process,” Holtgrewe said. “I think this distinguishes UNTANGLED from other projects, which engage them only at the end, when the findings are presented at the final conference. We believe inputs from labour market actors, policymakers and fellow researchers can help us craft better research and deliver better policy advice – and this exchange of ideas can be mutually beneficial.”
Karolien Lenaerts of HIVA – KU LEUVEN kicked off the event with a presentation introducing UNTANGLED’s objectives and methods. That was followed by Holtgrewe‘s presentation on how UNTANGLED plans to collaborate with stakeholders. Next, the ZSI team prepared a short online quiz in which participants were asked about their least favourite conjecture on technological change, globalisation or demographic change.
UNTANGLED researchers then had the opportunity to talk about their current projects. Ludivine Martin of LISER presented her recent work on how information and communication technologies affect employee motivation. While use of websites, workflow management tools and e-mail had a partly positive contribution to worker motivation, the use of groupware and web conferencing had negative or neutral effects. Thus, managers need to develop practices to enhance the positive effects of digital tools and counterbalance their negative effects. Piotr Lewandowski of IBS showed that automation of routine tasks affects workers differently depending on their age: younger workers are more likely to be negatively affected by automation.
The webinar succeeded in its goal of initiating a discussion between project participants and stakeholders, and provides a good foundation for building engagement, Holtgrewe said. Stay tuned for more such events!
The paper, The Impact of Robots on Labour Market Transitions in the EU, written jointly by Ronald Bachmann and Myrielle Gonschor from the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Germany, and Piotr Lewandowski and Karol Madoń from Poland’s Institute for Structural Research (IBS), studied how the increase in robot installation influenced worker flows, i.e. layoffs and new hirings, and therefore employment and unemployment levels in European economies.
https://editorialexpress.com/conference/ESPE2021/program/ESPE2021.html
Myrielle Gonschor, Ronald Bachmann, Piotr Lewandowski and Karol Madoń presented their preliminary findings the at the 26th Annual Conference of the Society of Labour Economists and 34th Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics on 14 May 2021. The full paper will be available soon, and a sneak peek at some of their preliminary findings already shows interesting results:
- Robot adoption leads to a slight reduction of layoffs, and to a small increase in job finding rates
- There are large differences between countries: the effect on layoffs is stronger in countries with lower labour costs
- Generally, robot adoption increases labour demand and therefore raises employment.
https://sole.memberclicks.net/assets/FinalProgram.SOLE2021.v2.pdf
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UNTANGLED LAUNCH MEETING
The meeting started with welcoming speeches from Geert Van Hootegem, general director at KU Leuven’s HIVA institute, which is leading UNTANGLED, and Project Coordinator Monique Ramioul. Kerstin Wilde, a project officer at European Commission Research Executive Agency, gave a brief but important presentation on the Agency’s expectations, including how the project should be managed in areas such as relations with the Commission, periodic reporting, collaboration with other projects and impact. Nele Van Eesbeek of KU Leuven talked about the administrative, financial and legal aspects of UNTANGLED.
This was followed by two sessions devoted to work packages. The first featured presentations from the leaders of three work packages that affect all the others – WP2: Framework of joint infrastructure, WP8: Stakeholder engagement and WP9: Dissemination and Communication. After a break, it was time for presentations from the leaders of the three key research packages launched in the first project phase: WP3: Macro-level analysis, WP4: Meso-level analysis, and WP5: Micro-level analysis. Task leaders also talked about how they want to approach their research agendas in the coming months, and discussed how to organise and share responsibilities to provide the best possible results, on time.
All of us are looking forward to being able to hold our next meeting offline. In the meantime, we’ll be sure to keep you posted on the next deliverables as they arise: webinars, papers and much more!
